1  Decision making in agriculture and extension organisations

This chapter introduces decision making as a process, examines how decisions are made on farms and in agricultural extension organisations, and classifies agricultural decisions by time horizon, complexity and uncertainty.

1.1 What is decision making?

Decision making is the cognitive, rational process of selecting the best course of action from multiple alternatives to achieve a specific goal. It involves identifying problems, evaluating options and committing to a path of action (Van den Ban & Hawkins, 1996). In agriculture, this process is shaped not only by economics but also by personal experience, social influences and access to information.

1.2 The seven-step decision-making process

Decision making can be described as a sequence of seven steps (Figure 1.1):

1. Define the problem: clearly identify the issue requiring resolution or the goal to be achieved.
2. Gather relevant information: collect internal and external data, including market research, expert opinions and past experiences.
3. Identify alternatives: develop a range of possible, actionable solutions or options.
4. Weigh the evidence: evaluate the pros and cons of each alternative, assessing potential risks and benefits.
5. Choose the best option: select the most suitable alternative that best fulfils the objective.
6. Take action: put the chosen plan into action by allocating resources and assigning tasks.
7. Review the decision: evaluate the outcome, analyse consequences and determine whether the problem was resolved.

flowchart LR
  A[1. Define the<br>problem] --> B[2. Gather<br>information]
  B --> C[3. Identify<br>alternatives]
  C --> D[4. Weigh the<br>evidence]
  D --> E[5. Choose the<br>best option]
  E --> F[6. Take<br>action]
  F --> G[7. Review the<br>decision]
  G -. not resolved .-> A

Figure 1.1: The seven-step decision-making process. The review step feeds back into problem definition when the problem is not resolved.

1.3 Decision making in agriculture

Agricultural decision making is a complex process influenced by economic, environmental and social factors. It is a behavioural process in which farmers and agribusiness stakeholders evaluate available information, consider alternatives and choose actions that best align with their goals (Van den Ban & Hawkins, 1996). Decision making in farm households is not solely the responsibility of the male head — other family members may be involved, and some decisions are made collectively.

One critical decision is whether to adopt new technologies: improved seeds, fertilisers, agrochemicals and mechanisation. Determining profitability requires farm-specific information (such as soil tests) as well as insights from neighbouring farmers who have already adopted.

1.4 Decision making in agricultural extension organisations

Decision making in extension organisations is inherently complex because of diverse farmer needs, variable environmental conditions, evolving market dynamics and policy constraints (Leeuwis & Van den Ban, 2004). An Agricultural Decision Making Support System (ADSS) integrates agricultural information systems, simulation models and expert systems to enable extension agents to deliver precise, real-time and customised guidance. Decision support systems are discussed further in Section 4.6.

1.5 Types of decisions in agriculture and extension organisations

1.5.1 Classification by time horizon

Decisions can be grouped by the length of time over which they operate (Van den Ban & Hawkins, 1996), as shown in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1: Classification of agricultural decisions by time horizon

Type	Time frame	Characteristics	Examples
Strategic	Long-term (5+ years)	High-impact; shape overall farm direction; involve large investments or structural shifts	Choosing between conventional and organic farming; investing in irrigation infrastructure; succession planning
Tactical	Medium-term (1–5 years)	Optimise operations within a production cycle; more flexible than strategic decisions	Crop rotation for the next season; selecting seed varieties and fertiliser applications; adjusting practices to weather forecasts
Operational	Short-term (days–weeks)	Routine, day-to-day and repetitive; require quick responses	Timing irrigation and pesticide application; hiring seasonal labour; managing daily livestock feeding schedules

1.5.2 Classification by complexity

• Routine (low complexity): repetitive, everyday decisions made from habit, past experience or standard practice. They require little new information or analysis.
• Tactical (moderate complexity): decisions that require some planning and assessment, affect operations for a season or a few years, and involve evaluating different options.
• Strategic (high complexity): long-term, high-impact decisions that require significant information gathering, expert consultation and analysis, and involve large financial investments with lasting consequences.

1.5.3 Classification by uncertainty

Decisions also differ in how far their outcomes can be known in advance (Hardaker et al., 2015), as shown in Table 1.2. Decision making under each of these conditions is examined in Chapter 2.

Table 1.2: Classification of agricultural decisions by level of uncertainty

Type	Uncertainty level	Characteristics	Agricultural example
Certain decisions	Low	Complete knowledge of outcomes; reliable data; predictable results	Daily livestock feeding; routine fertiliser application
Risk-based decisions	Moderate	Outcomes can be estimated with probabilities; past data and expert advice available	Crop variety selection based on historical weather patterns
Uncertain decisions	High	Outcomes cannot be estimated; unpredictable external variables	Planting under erratic rainfall; adopting a new technology with unknown local performance

1.6 Chapter Summary

Fill in the blanks

Answers are given at the end of the chapter.

1. Decision making is the process of selecting the best course of action from multiple __________ to achieve a specific goal.
2. The last step of the seven-step decision-making process is to __________ the decision.
3. An Agricultural Decision Making Support System integrates information systems, simulation models and __________ systems.
4. Investing in irrigation infrastructure is an example of a __________ decision.
5. Timing irrigation and pesticide application is an example of an __________ decision.
6. Decisions whose outcomes can be estimated with probabilities are called __________-based decisions.

Short-answer questions

1. Define decision making. What factors shape decision making in agriculture?
2. List and briefly explain the seven steps of the decision-making process.
3. Why is decision making in extension organisations inherently complex?
4. Classify agricultural decisions by time horizon, giving two examples of each type.
5. Distinguish between certain, risk-based and uncertain decisions with agricultural examples.

Quick revision

• Decision making → selecting the best course of action among alternatives to reach a goal.
• Seven steps → define, gather information, identify alternatives, weigh evidence, choose, act, review.
• Farm decisions → shaped by economics, experience, social influence and information; often made collectively in the household.
• ADSS → information systems + simulation models + expert systems for customised advice.
• By time → strategic (5+ years), tactical (1–5 years), operational (days–weeks).
• By complexity → routine, tactical, strategic.
• By uncertainty → certain, risk-based, uncertain.

Answers to fill in the blanks

1. alternatives 2. review 3. expert 4. strategic 5. operational 6. risk

Hardaker, J. B., Lien, G., Anderson, J. R., & Huirne, R. B. M. (2015). Coping with risk in agriculture: Applied decision analysis (3rd ed.). CABI.

Leeuwis, C., & Van den Ban, A. W. (2004). Communication for rural innovation: Rethinking agricultural extension (3rd ed.). Blackwell Science.

Van den Ban, A. W., & Hawkins, H. S. (1996). Agricultural extension (2nd ed.). Blackwell Science.